The Art and Science of Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decisions require judgement. The choice between two suppliers, indistinct in every respect with the exception of pricing, is a question of mathematics. The absence of judgement makes it a calculation, not a decision. These are easy. Decisions are those things we fear getting wrong.”  

– Dale Roberts and Rooven Pakkiri

Data does not and cannot drive decisions, at best it can support them. Indeed, the hardest decisions in business are those that require the decision maker to exercise significant judgement. How can one do this in a structured and principled way when information is scarce and the stakes high?

Our 2 day course on the art and science of decision making under uncertainty covers a range of quantitative and qualitative tools that can aid senior managers and frontline employees to make the best possible decisions under conditions of high uncertainty. More importantly, we show you how to figure out which decision making method is likely to work well based on the kind of decision problem you are dealing with.

1-2 Day Courses

Cover the Basics

Day 1

  • Uncertainty vs Ambiguity (an introduction to the ambiguity spectrum)
  • Quantifying uncertainty
    • Probability
    • Monte Carlo
  • Distinguishing between uncertain and ambiguous decision problems
  • Some examples from business scenarios (contracts, projects etc)
  • What is sensemaking

Day 2

  • Tackling ambiguous decision problems through sensemaking
  • Tools
    • Cynefin
    • Powerful questions
    • IBIS and Dialogue Mapping
  • IBIS deep dive
    • Mapping by hand exercises
    • Introduction to Compendium
    • Mapping dialogues using Compendium
  • Bringing it all together (the ambiguity spectrum revisited)
  • Wrap up.
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